2022 Midterm Predictions

The 2022 midterms are almost here, and here is a breakdown of some key races and predictions.


The 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching with just over two weeks until voting day, on November 8. This election cycle the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, thirty-six Governors, and hundreds of other positions across the nation are all up for election. Here in New Jersey, we have local election candidates and the entire twelve-member House delegation. Many believed that the Republicans would have an excellent year with the possibility of flipping both chambers of Congress and gaining potentially sixty more seats in the House. However that prediction seems less probable now, following many key legislation victories for Democrats, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and weak Republican candidates in many swing seats the midterms are neck and neck.

Governor Races

Thirty-six Governorsships are up for grabs this November. Only seven of those states will not have an incumbent Governor up for reelection, including Pennsylvania where incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited.  The best pickup opportunities for Democrats appear to be in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona. While Republicans will likely be in Oregon and Kansas.

Massachusetts – In Massachusetts, incumbent moderate Governor Charlie Baker (R) decided to retire rather than seek a third term. Baker was a very popular Republican Governor in deep blue Massachusetts. Had a moderate following in the footsteps of Baker, and other former Governors like now Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) been nominated, Massachusetts would have been a very competitive state. Instead, GOP voters in Massachusetts nominated far-right former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, who will very likely lose to Democrat nominee Maura Healey, the Attorney General of Massachusetts.

Maryland – Maryland is very similar to Massachusetts, incumbent moderate Governor Larry Hogan (R) was term-limited. Hogan threw his weight behind his former state commerce secretary who lost very narrowly to far-right state Delegate Dan Cox. Cox will very likely lose to Democratic nominee author, Wes Moore.

Arizona – In yet another example incumbent moderate Governor Doug Ducey (R) was term-limited. Ducey and much of the Republican establishment including former VP Mike Pence threw their support behind a more moderate candidate who narrowly lost to a far-right election denier backed by former President Donald Trump. Kari Lake (R) a local Phoenix tv reporter won the Republican primary and is facing a tough election against Democratic nominee Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D). The polls have gone back and forth between the two and are always well within the margin of error. I’m leaning toward this race going towards Hobbs (D) but by a very close margin. Arizona has been shifting to the left partly due to the growth of Phoenix and Tucson and Hobbs has won statewide races before, while Lake (R) has not.

Oregon – This is probably the most interesting Governor election in the country this cycle. Incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D) is term-limited, and the Democrats had a large primary that nominated progressive State House Speaker Tina Kotek (D). Due to Kotek’s apparate lead in the primary former Democratic moderate state senator Betsy Johnson launched an independent bid for the governorship. Johnson appears to have taken some support from more center-left supporters of Kotek (D). This has led to a situation where the Republican nominee former state house minority leader Christine Drazan (R) has tied Kotek in the polls. Drazan who is generally center-right may end up winning the Governorship due to the spilt on the left. If Drazan (R) wins it will be the first time since 1982 that Oregon elected a Republican Governor.

Kansas – Moderate incumbent Governor Laura Kelly (D) is facing a very tough election campaign against Kansas Secretary of State Derek Schmitt (R). Kelly (D) has received endorsements from some Kansas Republicans including former Senator Nancy Kassebaum (R) and two former Republican governors. Schmitt (R) is still backed by most state Republicans including having received an endorsement from the late former Senator and 1996 Republican Presidential nominee, Bob Dole (R). I think this race will be extremely close, however, I think that Governor Laura Kelly (D) will win reelection very narrowly.


Senate Elections

It appears very likely that we will have a repeat of 2020 and have another 50-50 senate for the second congress in a row. Already we are experiencing the longest 50-50 senate in the nation’s history and it appears to not be ending this cycle.  This is because Republicans appear to be flipping one Senate seat, while the Democrats appear to be flipping one Senate seat. Republican efforts to flip the chamber were not helped by the retirement of five Republican Senators, three of which are from competitive states. While Democrats only had one retirement in President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy of Vermont who is the longest-serving Senator first being elected in 1974.


Nevada is looking like it will vote out incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) for former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R). Laxalt is the grandson of former Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt (R) and the son of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R) due to an extramarital affair that Domenici had with Adam’s mother in the 1970s. Laxalt was also the Republican nominee for Governor of Nevada in 2018 and lost narrowly to the current governor. Laxalt has been polling ahead of Masto (D) for most of the summer although the polls have narrowed over the last few weeks. Laxalt’s candidacy was one of the few times where the Republican party united behind a single candidate. Laxalt (R) has run a more center-right campaign, while still occasionally going after the “woke mod”. I think that Laxalt (R) will win over Cortez-Masto (D) thus flipping one seat for the Republicans.


Pennsylvania is without an incumbent as Senator Pat Toomey (R) declined to seek a third term. The Republican primary was bitterly divided between tv doctor Mehmet Oz (R) a resident of North Jersey until last year, and former CEO and treasury official David McCormick (R). Oz (R) was able to receive the endorsement of former President Trump and won the primary by only a thousand votes. The Democratic primary was a cakewalk in comparison for PA lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D). Fetterman (D) has attacked Oz (R) as being out of touch and not a true Pennsylvanian, while Oz (R) has attacked Fretterman over inflation and crime. Fetterman comes from the progressive end of the Democratic party and has been focusing on his blue-collar background. Fetterman (D) has been holding leads over Oz (R) for months and while Oz had certainly closed the gap it doesn’t appear to be enough. If Fetterman (D) wins then that would be one seat flipped for the Democrats.

Republican Candidates 

The Republican’s weak showing in many states is due to their candidates. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R) spent months trying to convince popular GOP Governors like Chris Sununu (NH), Larry Hogan (MD), and Doug Ducey (AZ) to run for their state’s respective Senate seats. In many states, candidates won very narrow races often decided by how right-wing candidates were and the endorsements of Trump and his allies. While the center-right was divided over which candidates to support. This has led to races that the GOP could have won becoming much more likely to be won by Democrats like in Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. While states that Republicans should have had an easier time like Ohio, and North Carolina being much more competitive. This cycle has gone from one where the Republicans looked poised to win the Senate to one that the Democrats will keep.


House Elections

Control of the house is almost certainly going to the Republicans. Again though Republicans were thinking back in the spring they could win up to sixty more seats and now they will be lucky to win twenty. Some of the competitive seats are in our area. While Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ 2) and Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ 1) both seem very likely to win reelection which means there will be little change for Kingsway’s congressional districts other than Logan switching from the 1st to the 2nd district due to redistricting this cycle. In North Jersey’s 7th district it seems like one of the best pickup opportunities for Republicans with former state Senator, Thomas Kean Jr., Kean’s father was former NJ Governor Thomas Kean. Kean Jr. seems likely to beat current Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). In PA there are a few competitive races, though most seem to be favoring Republicans. This is largely because most of these Republicans including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in PA’s 1st district are moderate Republicans. I think that the House will flip Red and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA 23) will be elected Speaker of the House and a very divided Republican party.



Republicans have mostly squandered their opportunities in key races across the country due to the GOP’s right wing. This election will likely test the reach of MAGA Republicans compared to traditional Republicans. Democrats also have to be careful as they have meddled in GOP primaries to ensure weak Republican opponents. Democrats will likely face primaries in 2024 with Republicans propping up weak Democrats in response to Democrats meddling in 2022.